In June 2026, the Bureau of Meteorology (the Bureau) confirmed an El Niño event, with forecasts indicating an increased likelihood of below average rainfall across parts of southern Australia during the months ahead.
South West NRM CEO Dr Manda Page said the latest forecasts were consistent with a longer-term trend that had been observed across the region for decades.
“These latest forecasts of unusually low rainfall suggest a continuation of a pattern we have been seeing for some time,” Dr Page said.
“The Bureau’s ongoing reporting has demonstrated a significant reduction in rainfall across the South West over the past 50 years, echoing the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s assessment of the region as a global drying hotspot.”
What is El Niño?
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern that develops in the Pacific Ocean and can influence weather conditions around the world.
In Australia, El Niño events are often associated with drier than average conditions and above average temperatures, particularly during winter and spring. However, the Bureau stresses that no two El Niño events are the same, and Australia’s climate is influenced by a range of factors beyond El Niño alone.
What does it mean for our South West?
While it is too early to predict exactly what conditions will look like beyond spring, the Bureau notes that a positive Indian Ocean Dipole may also develop during winter. If this occurs alongside El Niño, it could further increase the chance of drier conditions across southern Australia.
Dr Page said declining rainfall was already having significant impacts across the region.
“Climate change is not a distant concern – it is already shaping our landscapes, communities and economy and is increasingly recognised as a key threat to the survival of native flora and fauna in the South West.
“Dry spells in recent years have also created significant challenges for farmers associated with feed and water shortages.”
In 2023, the Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry estimated climate impacts and changing seasonal conditions could reduce average farm profits by around 23 per cent.
Responding to a changing climate
South West NRM works with landholders, community groups, researchers, Traditional Owners and government agencies to improve resilience in both agricultural landscapes and natural ecosystems.
Through funding from the Australian Government’s Natural Heritage Trust, South West NRM delivers Sustainable Agriculture projects that help communities adapt to changing environmental conditions. This includes support for producers through a dedicated Sustainable Agriculture Facilitator, who is part of a national network helping farmers remain productive and profitable while adopting more sustainable practices.
Across the South West, this work includes initiatives focused on water security, soil health, pasture productivity and providing farmers with the information and tools needed to make decisions in an increasingly variable climate.
South West NRM also delivers conservation projects that support ecosystem resilience and the recovery of threatened species facing growing pressure from changing rainfall patterns, rising temperatures and habitat loss.
“While we cannot control the climate drivers affecting our region, we can support the actions that help communities, farms and ecosystems adapt to changing conditions,” Dr Page said.
To learn more about South West NRM’s environmental conservation work, visit our website to explore projects including Addressing the threat of climate change for endangered amphibians and reptiles and Saving Native Species: white-bellied frog, or read the Community Drought Resilience Framework – A guide to surviving the dry.
Producers seeking information about the Sustainable Agriculture program or Sustainable Agriculture Facilitator can contact the team on (08) 9724 2400 or visit the Sustainable Agriculture section of our website.
References:
El Niño: what it means for Australia’s climate | The Bureau of Meteorology
National Statement on Climate Change and Agriculture – DAFF
The weather bureau has just declared an El Niño. What could this mean for Australia?