Successfully adapting to our changing climate means we first need to get better at predicting what’s ahead.
To help, the WA State Government has just launched its Climate Science Initiative (CSI).
Wondering how it works? First let’s consider what climate scientists are currently predicting for summer 2025/26.
Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development (DPIRD) Senior Climate Research Scientist Meredith Guthrie presented at this month’s Grazing Matcher catch-up webinar and provided an overview of climate modelling for the South West.
Meredith highlighted an increased likelihood of a hot summer ahead, with elevated fire risk a key concern for the region, further supporting findings from the CSI.
Further insights into seasonal variability and projected climate conditions for the South West are available through Meredith’s recent Grains Research and Development Corporation research paper
Now back to how the new CSI and climate modelling works…
Every time you plan a car trip, you create a model in your mind of what might happen. You will use past experiences, consider the time of day and likely traffic, and consider any recent trends in your car trips such as, the route getting busier.
By putting all that information together, you make a reliable prediction of what the trip will look like.
Climate modelling works in a similar way, just slightly more technical and data driven! Modelling tools create computer simulations as close as possible to historical climate events and predict future climate scenarios by calculating temperature, pressure, wind and humidity across the Earth.
The new CSI uses multiple internationally-recognised climate models that represent a range of possible futures – from warmer and drier conditions to warmer and wetter outcomes. Using several models helps account for uncertainty and strengthens confidence in results where trends consistently agree.
CSI’s approach combines real-world observations – from weather stations, satellites, and other monitoring systems, with advanced computer models that have been tested against historical climate.
This ensures projections are grounded in observed conditions while still allowing exploration of future change.
Modelling summary for South West
Here is a summary of the modelling results in South West Western Australia:
For reference, SSP stands for stands for Shared Socioeconomic Pathways.
These are different “what if?” stories about the future that scientists use to model climate change.
Maximum Temperature in SWWA:
- Day-time temperatures rise everywhere – warming is unavoidable.
- Day-time summer temperatures show the strongest increases, especially under high emissions.
- Low emissions: warming stabilises after ~2050.
- Medium/high emissions: warming keeps escalating into late century.
- SSP1-2.6 (low emissions): ~1.1 – 1.4°C warmer by 2100.
- SSP2-4.5 (medium emissions): ~2.0 – 2.6°C warmer by 2100.
- SSP3-7.0 (high emissions): 3.0 – 3.6°C warmer (up to ~4°C inland).
- Heat increases are greatest in the interior Wheatbelt/Great Southern.
Coastal areas warm slightly less due to ocean moderation.
Minimum Temperature in SWWA:
- Minimum temperatures rise in every SSP – warming is unavoidable.
- Minimum temperature increases are generally larger than maximum temperature increases.
- Highest increases occur in summer (DJF), especially inland.
- Under high emissions, summer nights warm by 3 – 3.5°C by 2100.
- SSP1-2.6 (low emissions): ~1°C warming (stabilises after mid-century).
- SSP2-4.5 (medium emissions): ~2+°C warming by late century.
- SSP3-7.0 (high emissions): ~3 – 3.5°C warming – strongest and widespread increases.
- Increased night-time warming is most intense in the Wheatbelt and Great Southern.
For further technical detail on the modelling approaches, datasets and assumptions underpinning the CSI work, additional information is available through the WA Climate Science Initiative infographics here: Climate_Science_Initiative-All_Infographics.pdf